Local Elections and Older Voters

March 16 2023

This year’s local elections in May should be a big indicator of the likely outcome of the next General Election due at sometime in the next two years. Rishi Sunak is hoping that finding a solution to the Northern Ireland border problem and solving the ‘small boat’ cross channel immigrant crisis will result in a change to their fortunes. However it is by no means assured that he will be successful in resolving either of these problems. However although the Labour Party is a clear leader in the opinion polls there is still almost two years to go before the General Election and as Harold Wilson said ‘A week is a long time in politics ‘.

However, what is clear is that the main battle grounds in the General Election will be Scotland, the RedWall constituencies and the over 50s. Probably the most important of these is the over 50s and the elderly. According to YouGov and based on the 2017 General Election, ‘Age is the new key predictor of voting intention in British politics’. In the EU referendum and again in 2017 age was the new dividing line in British politics’ and the indications are that little has changed over the past two years, with Labour winning a majority of younger voters and the Conservatives miles ahead amongst older voters. In fact for every 10 years older a voter is, their chances of voting Conservative increases by around nine points, and the chance of them voting Labour decreases by eight points. The tipping point at which a voter is more likely to have voted Conservative than Labour in fact reduced from 47 to 39 at the last election.

This is a big problem for Labour and it is one they are either ignoring or are not prepared to deal with and the Conservatives are well aware that the majority of older people vote Conservative. That is why, despite increasing pressure from the right-wing, Conservative supporting think tanks,they have promised to maintain the Triple Lock this April. Their failure to deal with the Social Care crisis, the terrible treatment of the WASPI women and the previous threat by Teresa May to introduce a Dementia Tax seems to go under the radar with most elderly people. If they were to win the next General Election you have to wonder if the Triple Lock will once again come under attack.

The SNP is having a leadership election against the background of Nicola Stury’s resignation and this is having an effect on their position in the opinion polls. The latest polls in the Redwall constituencies show the Conservatives could lose all those seats they won in the last election. However it’s not clear if the swing against the Tories is affecting the voting intentions of the elderly as a significant swing to Labour amongst this group is essential if they want a working majority. It’s about time the Labour Party applied themselves to this problem before it’s too late.